ECCOMAS 2024

Risk Management of Multi-component Engineering System with Probabilistic Reinforcement Learning

  • Zhang, Yiming (Zhejiang University)

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In recent years, multi-agent deep reinforcement learning has progressed rapidly as reflected by its increasing adoptions in industrial applications. This work introduces a Probabilistic Reinforcement Learning (PRL) model to tackle risk management of multi-component engineering systems in the presence of uncertainty with the goal of minimizing the overall life-cycle cost. The PRL is deeply rooted in the Actor-Critic (AC) scheme. Since traditional AC falls short in sampling efficiency and suffers from getting stuck in local minima in the context of multi-agent reinforcement learning, it is thus challenging for the actor network to converge to a solution of desirable quality even when the critic network is properly configured. To address these issues, we develop a generic framework to facilitate effective training of the actor network, and the framework consists of environmental reward modeling, degradation formulation, state representation, and policy optimization. The convergence speed of the actor network is significantly improved with a guided sampling scheme for environment exploration by exploiting rules-based domain expert policies. To handle data scarcity, the environmental modeling and policy optimization are approximated with Bayesian models for effective uncertainty quantification. The PRL model is evaluated using the simulations of a 12-component system as well as GE90 and CFM56 engines. Compared with four alternative deep reinforcement learning schemes, the PRL lowers life-cycle cost by 34 % to 88%.